Mon. a.m., Jan 31
Someone has already seen his shadow. Ignoring the ensembles for the time being, the nam & gfs are eye-to-eye on the 500 flow for the next 72 hours. Unfortunate timing for those hoping to get to Lawrence this week, about a foot of snow should hit the ground over eastern Kansas and western Missouri Tuesday and Tuesday night. From there the axis of heaviest snow heads for northern Illinois and southern Michigan, and then the midsection of New York and New England. A nice stripe of freezing rain will accompany the snow and it should be significant. But here at the Institute all major organs are pointed toward the south for Tuesday. The surface low is forecast to move from northeast Texas Tuesday morning to western Tennessee Tuesday night. So Mississippi will get a shot at some severe weather and even pitiful Memphis may see lightning. Then it gets cold. Don't stop me if you've heard this before. The window of opportunity for snow in Memphis opens late Wednesday night and closes during the early morning. Looks like a dusting at this point.
So Kansas City and vicinity dries out but stays frigid Wednesday morning. Indianapolis gets freezing rain before it changes to snow Tuesday night, and EWR/NYC gets 2 or 3 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night, then does #2 on Wednesday with the stronger wave; snow and freezing rain and significant amounts of both. The coast makes it hard to get all quanty about it.
Memphis has a great wind profile at 18z but winds veer through the afternoon and cape is never impressive. Best cape values are in Louisiana, 300-500j/kg according to the gfs forecast soundings. So abundant shear but lean instability. I'm not tempted to go south for this since the storms will move fast and may be primarily straight-line wind producers. Interesting week to watch, though.