April 17, 2019 Texas-Oklahoma-Kansas

Short range models show storms firing off the New Mexico mountains and then activity gets going in the Texas panhandle around 21z-22z. It becomes linear as it builds into Kansas. At 03z another line starts east of the Big Bend area and moves across Texas during the night. 

The models had this part right. Tornadoes were reported in the Texas panhandle from 2030z until 22z. Southern Kansas had a couple of landspouts. The second line in Texas produced damaging winds and large hail from the Rio Grande into northwestern Louisiana

April 13-Texas,Louisiana,Mississippi,Alabama

If memory serves, this was SPC’s first moderate risk area of the season. All the guidance showed storms all over the place in northern, central and western Texas on Saturday morning, which pretty much happened. CAPE bullseye was south of I-20 in eastern Texas and Louisiana while the SIGTOR max was stamped on northern Louisiana. Helicity values were maximum in northern and central Arkansas. The front would be located along I-30 into northeastern Texas. And the upper jet was forecast from San Antonio to southeastern Oklahoma, with a southwesterly 850 jet across this area. None of this made me want to venture into the pine trees regardless of the potential. 

The morning activity in Texas made 3 inch hail stones. A linear system in the south central part dominated the radar but isolated cells had sprung up ahead of it. SPC’s outlook changed little, just a little further south with the moderate risk in Louisiana. 

Texas tornadoes were busy from 16z until 1830z, then there was a nearly three-hour gap until Louisiana had any reports. Mississippi and Alabama reports were after 22z.

March 29th-day zero

Still looking at a bunch of forecast soundings with inversion troubles. Southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma look severe with hail the greatest hazard. Glad I sat this one out, so far.

March 29-Oklahoma

It might be good in OK tomorrow, the 29th. But maybe not. The models provide feast and famine. The GFS forecast soundings for 00z in central and southern OK favor tornadoes and some locations have “PDS TOR” stamped on them. The NAM3k says no threat anywhere.

gfs sounding for central OK at 00z/Friday

the nam for the same time, same area

For the NAM I selected a location a little too far north but the same result came out all the way to the Red River. Little or no mlcape for the southern half of Oklahoma and plenty of cinh. The GFS had little cinh but abundant mlcape and better hodographs.

The surface forecasts were similar for both models.

The ridge in the western plains is sharper on the NAM. I have been in these cases before where I was sure of a big day and then steadily dropped south to avoid the irresistible nose of cold air. Sinking triple points are bad for drylines, and tomorrow showed it to be capped off anyway.

SPC’s slight area covers central and eastern Oklahoma. They like the lapse rates, around 8C/km, and so do I. The model discrepancy is discouraging and even the GFS does not show favorable parameters over a very large area. It is a Friday, but it is a one-day shot. Leaning against the drive at the moment…

The 12z run of the NAM3k soundings for Friday evening has “marginal TOR” profiles south of SPS for a small area. Some SVR profiles are present in eastern Oklahoma. This model maintains the imposing surface ridge all the way to I-20 west of DFW. Forecast mlcapes exceed 2000j/kg with 100j/kg of cinh. There is a pronounced inversion at 850mb. The cap lessens as you go north into northeastern Oklahoma but does not go away. The 12zGFS roads like south central Oklahoma, west of I-35 and south of I-40. The cap is much less pronounced than it is on the NAM3k. Still, the choice area is small. One of the models is way incorrect.

Ya Gotta have CAPE

November 5, 2018

A low cape-high shear setup arose on this date. A negatively-tilted shortwave moved through the south central US during the day and into the Mississippi Valley by the late night. The surface low was in Texas at 00z with a warm front along the Arkansas-Louisiana border and on through central Mississippi. 

The SPC outlook covered the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys with a slight risk, and an enhanced area was outlined for central and southwestern Tennessee, northern and central Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas. This included Memphis and gained everyone’s attention. 

Forecast soundings for this area showed a really, really low cape and very, very high shear combination. If you could get an updraft to sustain itself it would likely go crazy. Early afternoon cells in central Arkansas showed mid-level rotation, so at least that was favorable. My forecast for MEM was for severe thunderstorms in the area late in the day and early evening, with several false alarms for tor warning due to the ridiculous helicity.

The 850jet was aligned from northern Louisiana northeastward to central Tennessee. The mesoanalysis page focused composite parameters bullseyes in northern Louisiana and this verified with a large tornado around the Natchitoches area. There were some wind damage reports over northern Mississippi but nothing for this immediate area. The meso page showed the best cape was way down south and this is reflected in the VORTEX-SE soundings.

Storm movements reached 50mph, the sun set at 5pm, and I was glad I let this one go

OK & TX part two

The cirrus got worse as the day went on, and it hurt the photographic light, not to mention the insolation. It looked bad for daylight convection so I spent the day stopping to get the pictures I used to drive away from. Staying off the interstate gives you better scenery. I also see better with the radio off. Since I was just waiting for nighttime lightning I had abundant time to kill. I found a sociable llama, a few goats, and a herd of angus cooling off in a pond. Lake Murray was convenient so I spent an hour shooting time-lapse of the unenthusiastic clouds. I crossed the Red River (now featuring running water) for a couple of shots, visited the visitor’s center, and then returned to Oklahoma. I visited that visitor’s center, where they readapt you from whatever you were told at the other visitor’s center. Eventually it got dark. The Royals gave another game away. Finally new storms developed south of I-40 after 10pm and essentially did nothing until they reached central Oklahoma, where they knocked down trees and power lines. The lightning was not impressive from my vantage point so I avoided all the wind and hail.

More Oklahoma flowers...

Oklahoma and Texas in April

I like the plains because its weather agrees with me. It is a relief to leave the jungle of the mid-south and head west to make sure the sky is still there. Between Tennessee and this reward is Arkansas. The state works hard to maintain I-40 as a viable roadway. The prodigious volume of truck traffic makes this a losing battle. Maybe this is a sign of a nation with a robust economy and a limp rail system. I had a tough commute today and diesel volume was a factor, but less so than etiquette. “How’s my driving?” Well it’s pretty good for an in-bred insomniac on meth. It would be helpful if they changed lanes after checking their surroundings, and then following up with a signal of any kind. The signs on the cab doors identify them as “operators,” but they’re really just steerers, part-time.

I operate a relatively small suv that I’ve only used on long-distance trips a couple of times. We’re still getting acquainted. I do some things that irritate the vehicle and it beeps and whines. It does several things that truly irk me. We’re trying to work it out. Fortunately there was baseball on the radio to distract me from the imminent carnage and Subarian warnings. Even better, the Royals had a day off. Best of all the sky is still here, at least in central Oklahoma. At dusk I can see anvil cirrus to the north, where the atmosphere did some weight lifting without proper hydration. Hoping for something better tomorrow, before dark, if possible?

Weird thing I learned today: Charlie Hough, not-so-hard-throwing knuckleballer for many organizations, doctored balls with Metamucil (I have only seen it in powder form, that’s how the cats like it). The commissioner of baseball suspended him for using a “foreign substance” on a baseball, but the patent is owned by Proctor and Gamble, of Cincinnati, Ohio, USA.

Oklahoma and Texas in March

Maybe I was too anxious to get back to the plains. Having passed up a couple of opportunities earlier in the unusually warm spring, I saw this setup and it looked manageable for the solo chaser. This would not be an inland hurricane with storms moving at mach speeds. 

I left Saturday with the idea that I would be somewhere along the Red River Sunday afternoon. After spending a noisy night in Sallisaw listening to frequent trains, I took US69 south and then went west from McAlester. SPC was more excited about tornadoes than I was. They had a 10% tor area on the outlooks, which turned out to be extreme. Spoiler: one confirmed tornado near Ada when it was over. I did not see much that was photogenic for most of the afternoon. I went up and down I-35 looking at the convection, which was severe but not terrific. Tornado warnings went out on storms south of OKC but I didn't think there was enough moisture that far north for any touchdowns. 

New storms were firing in northwestern Texas that I thought would pass north of the DFW sprawl. I decided to go down south for the better moisture and newer storms. The worst of the drive was from casino traffic near the Red River. I made it to Denton just ahead of a large hailstorm. After slogging through town in construction I stopped and shot the storm, which had 41/2in hail. The lightning was occasionally good. Darkness finally came as I backed off to the east. I could not find a good shooting point due to all the housing that has developed since I was last there, which has been two or three years. Things were falling apart on radar so I took off east to Greenville, where I found a nicer motel. 

Monday would be a down day but Tuesday looked promising so I stayed out west. I had a nice lunch at the Saucer on the Lake and spent the night in Weatherford. 

Headed west to an area south of CDS and northwest of ABI. Early storms were moving straight north and became severe in the panhandle down to LBB. I hoped for new convection. I had time to stop for wildflower pictures. This has been a good year for them. I don't understand how they can be so hail-resistant.

I learned later that two chase vehicles collided southeast of LBB, I guess around the early storms. I found a severe storm that showed good rotation northwest of ABI, but it never managed more than a funnel. Meanwhile, a storm coming up on ABI had tor warnings on it and looked much better on radar. I finally gave up and headed east to get ahead of the cell before dropping south. Unfortunately I had spent too much time on the other storm and got cut off north of ABI. I stopped east of Anson to study the radar and decided to reverse-core plunge. If the hail didn't get too large I would let the whole thing come to me. The stones didn't last long where I was parked and I never saw anything larger than a golf ball. As the circulation came into view to the southeast, I finally saw dust and debris beneath a bowl-shaped lowering. There were infrequent condensation vortices but they did not last long.

The contrast was so-so since I was in precipitation and likely the tornado was as well. I still felt pretty pleased with myself since I had not seen a tornado since 2015, thanks to my fainting spells. I instantly made a bad decision to go north on a dirt road to keep up with the circulation, which still carried a warning. All-wheel drive sucks on mousse as it turns out. I had to slowly back out which meant missing the damage that occurred at Stamford Lake. 

More storms were developing at darkness out by Midland. I wanted to shoot lightning anyway so I went into ABI and took the interstate west. The strokes were not visible due to cloud cover but the storm soon got a tornado warning on it. I gave up at Sweetwater and went back to the ABI Super 8, an annual mistake given the cumbersome location and run-down condition. 

The next day looked best in the pine trees. I could see the dry line from the Saucer's patio on Lake Ray Hubbard. I took a leisurely drive back to Tennessee, watching many vehicles with TX and OK plates whiz past. TWC was whipping everyone into a frenzy over the Mississippi Valley but a wall of convection formed along the Gulf coast and really damaged the environment to the north. 

Happy New Year #3

Models had the gross synoptic details in hand. My dilemma was whether the good stuff would occur far enough north for me to handle. There were a few reports north of I-20 in Mississippi but even those were in and around the national forest areas, so I'm glad I let this one go.

happy new year pt2

Obviously, major differences on display in both models. It is no wonder that SPC almost never outlooks any “slight” risk areas beyond three days. There is agreement on the 300mb flow between the two, with a split in the max winds over the central plains at 00z. 

The gfs has an elongated low in the plains, with another low in western Louisiana. The european has an elongated area of low pressure with a center probably in northern Missouri and no low in the south, and about 600 joules of sbcape in this area. 

 

The upper center is still off the California coast so things may coalesce tonight. By 00z the 500mb vortmax favors Mississippi on the two progs. What was an easy go decision is less than that today. And now there is this...

The 12z runs of both models show consistency between each other and with their own successive runs. Behold the upper flow, still showing the split in max winds.

Even when the upper low was off the coast this configuration kept showing up in the solutions. The 500mb pattern hasn't changed much either.

The surface solutions have come together with the surface low allegedly located at Olive Branch, not far south of Memphis, at 00z.

I expect only minor adjustments from here onward. The upper low is over the southwestern US so we won't have the over-water data void problems anymore, at least beyond the usual. Tomorrow it will be time to look more closely at the shear and instability forecasts for Mississippi during Monday afternoon.

happy new year?

January 2nd is shaping up with possibilities for severe storms in this part of the world, according to some equations. This is of greater than usual interest since it would happen on a day off. The gfs paints the brighter picture. A surface low in northeastern Arkansas, excellent diffluence across northern and central Mississippi, a great start from five days out. The European has a different idea. That model stamps the surface low near Davenport, Iowa. That would alter my plan. Same river valley, but that valley is hundreds of miles long. Anyway, something to watch over the weekend.

the European for Monday evening

the gfs for Monday evening

November 29th summary

The big question for me was whether I could get far enough south to see a tornado before sunset, which was 4:48pm. The two tornadoes in Louisiana were clearly out of range. SPC shows five reports in Rankin and Scott Counties between 3:57 and darkness. This is basically driving to Jackson, which takes 3 1/2hrs, in round numbers. I would arrive in that area at 4:30. So it would have required a perfect intercept, no traffic problems or brain cramps or weather to hamper progress.

3pm radar mosaic

So I would have arrived at Grenada at 3pm, as the northern batch of severe cells reached the interstate. There is a potential delay. 

4pm radar mosaic

By 4pm cells were north and east of Jackson, with tornadoes reported just before 4pm near Leesburg and Forkville. The latter town happens to be in the Bienville National Forest (established in 1934). 

I drive pretty fast if conditions permit but would likely have had to core plunge at least once, heading into a heavily-treed area. Usually the correct decision is just go, since I'll never see anything from my living room. But in retrospect this looks like a long shot on paper. I needed a closer warm front.

November 29th, finally

The secondary severe weather season I have always remembered has arrived. A stationary front along l-20 is coming north and the trough is coming east. Favored area at midday is from around Grenada and Winona northeastward to Corinth and Tupelo.

The biggest downer for all this is the 4:48pm sunset. Most areas around central Mississippi are heavily treed but the northeast is workable in places. Going solo doesn't appeal to me either.

The composite parameters are pretty good. EHI reaches 2 all the way to southwest Tennessee. Most of the hi-res models send the small-scale low either over or just south of MEM, so it seems that the best conditions will be south of this burg. 850mb winds are good here but veered after 00z. They are really good over northern Mississippi through evening. I think someone's going to get hurt tonight from something that develops along the front.

#13

About a dozen of us gathered for a plate party at the Cordova Flying Saucer a week ago. There were newly-hired meteorologists, a slew of psychologists, dear friends from Oregon, and various partners. We moved from the patio to indoors at the last minute because a few of us cooked during the afternoon on Mud Island, walking the scale model of the lower Mississippi River. It requires a significant amount of time because there are a lot of panels to read. I should have photographed them because the history was interesting. 

Anyway, hot. The tolerable atmosphere from the weekend had departed, replaced by the typical and more oppressive normal version. The Saucer was also observing its weekly glass night but there was not much of a crowd and I could actually hear the multiple conversations at the table. I learned about how to ensure an organ recipient has the correct blood type, odds and ends in psychology and education in general, and interesting bits about my new co-workers. We were there over three and a half hours, which is a lot longer than normal. Even so, no one over-indulged and we were a well-behaved bunch. The tab was not excessive, probably because there were so few of us. I think some people just put one beer on the account, too. 

The mid-week party broke up the routine but it might be better to go back to the weekend.

May 7-9, 2016-Colorado,Nebraska,Kansas,Oklahoma,Texas,etc

Hard to get granular with this trough. The best news is that I have a live spouse, and there will be no long-term consequences from surgery. Colon cancer is not to be trifled with and I am proud of her for getting the exam that found this problem. At this point she is recovering by the day and has handled pain that would have left me in bed. Her level-6 pain is my level-10. That said, I cannot pretend it did not hurt to miss this week of storms. The most charitable thing I can say about this year is that it has been so-so. I had a fun week at the end of April but it was largely non-tornadic, and completely void of photogenic vortices. 

A few days ago it appeared that Sunday was going to be the big day, sandwiched between a day one on the high plains and day three in the lower longitudes. Day one turned out to be a festival in northeastern Colorado, and that was Saturday, with over a dozen tornadoes in the same county. The afternoon surface map showed a strong dry surge coming out of southern Coloradotoward a triple point northeast of Denver.

Sunday was originally a moderate risk day, later demoted to enhanced by SPC. They de-emphasized the northern portion of their area in northern Kansas in favor of southern Kansas and Oklahoma. I do not throw stones, especially when I am so distracted, but the confirmed tornadoes wound up in northern Kansas, plus a lone occurrence in southern Oklahoma

Monday begat violent tornadoes in south central Oklahoma that will likely turn out to be the best of the year. The video is impressive. It would have been fun. This day was much better handled by SPC.

April 26th-southern Kansas, OKC after dark

Everyone is hyping this as a huge tornado outbreak, but if I hadn’t been listening for the past few days I would have pretty low expectations. The triple point in north central Kansas is enticing this afternoon, but so many parameters are weak for the area. I’m leaning toward staying south along the dry line in northwestern Oklahoma. The forecast soundings in the moist axis show a veer-back-veer wind profile, which is not good. I’m just never certain how bad it is, as in how much of that pattern does the mesocyclone feel? 

One thing is certain: hail, big hail, lots of it. Well, the RAP shows development in south central Kansas at 20z and then precip down the dry line through western Oklahoma. Make it so. The NAM does the same thing, sorta. Both models show little or no srh until the low-level jet starts up this evening. Am I really going to stare at this stuff for two more hours until check-out time? 

Cannot complain about the cape. The models indicate the cinh may disappear by mid-afternoon. The HRRR shows discrete cells in southern Kansas west of ICT by 20z, then develops clusters through western Oklahoma, and a bow-echo moving across MCI around 03z. 

The 14z sfc map shows a surface low in west central Kansas, southeast of the main triple point. Some models maintain this into mid-afternoon but the NAM and RAP get rid of it and stamp a new low in the eastern Texas panhandle.

There is at least one model to support going anyplace today. There should be tornadoes near the warm front in northern Kansas. There should be some along the dry line. That’s climatology. The problem is figuring out where the best ones will occur. 

So a storm goes up near OKC before 16z but the HRRR never saw it coming. Should be a good hailstorm.......

Dear Diary,

The tv bolted to the wall is full of scary stuff tonight, primary returns and storm coverage. After assuring me of my impending death for nearly an hour, there is finally a tornado in Oklahoma City. They had already convinced me and I’m at least seventy miles away. But even a so-so day in the plains beats Methville. And of course thanks a lot to the atmosphere for holding off until after dark. There was a tornado reported south of Wichita this afternoon. I was staring at the storm when it allegedly happened and saw nothing resembling a tornado, so I doubt it. It is possible I blinked. It is possible since I have not witnessed a tornado since last year I have forgotten what they look like. But at least there were storms, and even fire. The Arkansas City suburbs were in flames and I got caught in the firefighters’ stampede as I crested a hill. They succeeded, but hail would probably have put it out eventually. Sometimes I miss the early days, when we would hit the road with very little idea of what would happen. Today will cure anyone’s nostalgia for ignorance. I was not as optimistic as many for a big tornado day, but I assumed a couple of good areas would turn up in northern Kansas and way down south in Texas. Mostly I feared losing another windshield because it looked like a great setup for large hail. The bulk of the day’s stress came from blundering into Miles Davis on the radio. The song triggered a need for me to remember the difference between a synonym and a homonym, and I couldn’t. It disturbed me for most of the afternoon. And I could not remember the name of the woman who sang Prince’s “Nothing Compares to U.” I kept confusing Sinead with Sade. Eye no knot Y. Should probably focus more on driving. So the storms were fair but not great, visually and dynamically. But the 4 Cylinders of the Apocalypse still have a lot of life left. And I assume Oklahoma City residents will make it through the night, though a tornado in a city is nothing to snicker at unless you’re watching channel five. At least they haven’t told the populace to load the family into the wagon and take to the streets. When the storms depart the motel parking lot I will try to shoot lightning. Whether I screwed up the day or not, I can still forecast darkness.

Groundhog Day, 2016

The mental wear and tear of looking at scores of numerical forecasts for days took its toll so I took to the road to find a good storm and check out some gear. It is remarkable that one of the models had a nice grasp on this day over a week in advance. Probably a fluke. 

This early chase meant an afternoon away from the evil machines at the Y. If I had gone there I would have spent the time staring at radar on the tablet. I also benefited from an escape from the weather in the upper Midwest, where the atmosphere was snowing its hinder off. This is a burden for my employer, the dumbest airline not yet in bankruptcy (DANYIB), and I understand the indigestion. But they have the same problems in dry air that they do inside a cloud. 

So I took recess this afternoon and drove into Mississippi, which I could see from my office if I had a window. (I asked not to have a window when I changed jobs just for that reason.) It was the usual cold-season mid-south outbreak: not-enough cape, too-much shear, wicked fast storms. So prospects for good photography were slim, and made worse by the Mississippi landscape of countless ugly trees and undisciplined terrain. At least it would be a short trip. 

I murdered two storms just by driving toward them. They may have been born dead anyway, judging from their resemblance to squishy slugs of cat hair blown down a hallway by a noisy fan. I spent some down time wrestling with balky computer hardware and these distractions eased my frustration with the weather. To this point my worst mistake was scanning the fm dial for weather information. I learned much of the impending recruiting dilemmas for a couple of SEC schools, groundhog history, and the latest politics (ACA 63, GOP 0).

Finally, a storm developed that managed to avoid all of the others. So many to this point had evolved into boring linear shapes, joining with their neighbors in some sort of unholy communion. I’ll spare you the reasons for my disdain. I saw a few other chasers drifting along with the storm. A friend told me early in the day that many Oklahomans were streaming toward Tennessee. It reminded me of the old Oklahoma-Texas punchline about the IQs of both states going up. Or down, I can’t remember. There was less than an hour before sunset. Tick-tock, atmosphere. I stayed with the cell, driving east to Holly Springs. I crossed the damage track from the big December tornado twice. That one left quite a bruise. This storm looked better and better and the NWS issued a tornado warning before 5pm. I could see the wall cloud every once in awhile thanks to rare gaps in the trees. The sirens wailed in Holly Springs; no doubt still a jittery town. I found a high spot at a strip mall and watched the low cloud base cruise northward. The rear-flank downdraft was evident and I thought I might get lucky. The rotation persisted as the storm moved past the west side of town. Then, the combination of heavy rain and the lack of a well-placed road ended the chase. Also, I was driving around the countryside with water beginning to pile up along the road. And it was getting dark. I declared victory and clocked out. 

The tornado warning for my storm expired and was not reissued. I did not see any sign of damage when I drove the path of the rotating lowering. There were confirmed tornadoes in east central Mississippi and western Alabama that were beyond my reach. And the Bass Pro in Rankin was hit by half-dollar sized hailstones. If I was judgmental I would say the atmosphere, which hates us, underperformed. The two storm pictures are views to the west of the rotating cloud base; something only a meteorologist could love. A good day for me, even without a tornado. The Four Cylinders of the Apocalypse®™©, at eleven years and 262k miles, still runs well.

                   Wall cloud and rear-flank downdraft west of Holly Springs, Mississippi

April 24, 2015 in north central Kansas

It irks me to not immediately fall asleep after a long day at the wheel. I used my final waking hours to get a look at Friday’s possible setup. I wanted to go to south central Kansas, around Medicine Lodge. It is a relatively large village in the area, the site of a treaty signed and misplaced a long time ago. I had taken the first room I could find because I did not want to listen to my car, the Cubs, Giants, or Royals another second. In my quest for excellence in photography and science, I have spent more nights on Wyatt Earp Boulevard than on Bourbon Street and while the smells could not be more dissimilar the rates are more or less the same. Due to the dominant feedlot industry, it is an ill wind that blows from just about every direction, so I opt for the hermetically-sealed rooms, preferably smoking. Turn the volume on the fan up, for good measure. At least there were no bedbugs that I could locate. I’m talking to you, Norway.

I slept in for the first time on the trip because I was close to my target area. Breakfast was Fruit Loops, gravy on the side. The satellite loop showed that my target area was buried in thick cirrus, which required a fresh paradigm. Cirrus is bad news because it causes downward motion in the atmosphere and reduces the heat at the surface. It can drive one to gravy. I spent three hours after breakfast packing the car, looking at the data as it came in, and trying to figure out how this situation would work out. 

SPC kept the faith, maybe from inertia; enhanced risk, increasing moisture, adequate winds, and so forth. I put my faith in the satellite loop, which showed clear skies spreading into northern Kansas, and the surface observations that showed Gulf moisture oozing into central Kansas. The low level winds would be favorable for rotating storms. I left town at 11am for Great Bend, but slowly. This aggravated some of my fellow motorists since I was only ten miles/hour above the posted limit. Low-level moisture was abundant, even to the naked eye. There were scattered cumulus clouds all over the area. I was where I would want to be if I was not there, if you know what I mean. And I would have good data via the internet for this chase. 

Larned had a few fast food places so I stopped for lunch and a break from the car. The storm-monger crowd had focused on northern Texas so I felt a little left out on the discussion boards. The high-resolution models consistently showed initiation by 3pm, north of Dodge City. These storms would become clusters and lines as they moved eastward to the eastern part of the state. Considering the state of numerical weather prediction when I got into this business, the progress is remarkable. But if the models were perfect we would print them in the daily paper and I could stay home. I should probably back off from the computer but I cannot look away. Mediocre thunderstorms composed a Poissonesque radarscape over far western Kansas during the early afternoon. These storms were not severe, but were a good indication that the new activity would form soon in the better airmass.

The best moisture curved from south central Kansas to the northwest, through Great Bend, toward some obscure coordinate east of Hill City. I watched the atmosphere, which hates us, evolve from the Santa Fe Trail Museum near Larned. There were developing storms to my south, around St. John, and a severe storm way out west near Goodland. I gave the southern cells a fair chance to develop, which they did not, and then headed north toward the interstate. 

The storms started almost overhead around 2:30pm. A good forecast; the growing towers were beautiful bright white against unusually blue sky. I forgot to mention that my xmradio died. The storms would get my head back in the game, but it meant no static-free baseball, no new music, but no White Sox-tainted version of the Royals game. I would be alone. With my dark thoughts. 

Anyway, the cells formed in a north-ish/south-ish line between Wakeeney and Hays. About this time, SPC issued the tornado watch and a half-hour later the first severe warning came out for Ellis County. I set up my camera for time-lapse north of Hays and recorded tornadogenesis failure. Shame, since it really had great character for almost 30 minutes. Another flank had developed to the northeast so I stopped shooting and took off for the new updraft. I saw a brief but substantial cone tornado at 5pm from this part of the storm. There was no place to pull off the road for a picture due to the local chasers in their pickups.  There was a brief touchdown prior to this, and numerous reports afterward. From my perspective, the thing was wrapped in rain and life would be hard.

I continued east, listening to a local Hays fm station. Law enforcement reported one or two brief touchdowns in rain. I thought the best picture opportunities were over with the thing shrouded in precipitation. That did not stop me and thousands of others from following the thing as it very slowly moved into northeastern Ellis County. Reed Timmer’s Dominator rumbled up behind me. He has installed a row of painful high-intensity LED lights on the front for a retro-Cylon look. Fortunately the Four Cylinders of the Apocalypse is equipped with an adjustable rear-view mirror. The storm looked absolutely wonderful on radar and the tornado warning for the cell was re-issued repeatedly for over an hour. I got a few pictures of the overall storm. The roads made it even less likely that a solo chaser would manage any decent tornado photography. 

Once the storm finally made it into Lincoln County, to the east of Ellis, the fm station declared the storm to no longer be a threat. In your face, Lincoln County. Maybe there is bad blood between the two that goes back a couple of centuries. Anyway, Lincoln County enjoyed warnings for awhile as the storm showed no sign of being in a hurry. 

I surveyed the radar for another storm with a better road network. There was a stationary cell out in Gove County, but I would have to punch through a severe line to get there, and it was already past sunset. Lightning would be nice but with my luck this year I would let that unfold on the way to Wichita rather than park and stare. It didn’t.

The Kansas tornadoes ended around 6:30, then Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi lit up with reports through early Saturday morning. I had a decent three days with excellent storms. I made good time back to Memphis on Saturday, and discovered that the new bait shop was ready.

April 23rd, I can see clearly now

Thur, Apr 23rd

I was sure I wasn’t chasing this one, since I had to obtain a fresh windshield. My first target was north central Texas anyway, disgustingly close to the metroplex, so I was fine with getting the car ready for the road and then leaving Amarillo for northern Oklahoma to get set up for the next day in Kansas. It turned out Safelite Auto Glass had the same tech support as I do. Their database showed that they had my glass in stock, contrary to reality. They said it might be Monday before they could get it. I took deep breaths. What would Saddam do? After a series of phone calls, a suitable windshield turned up somewhere in Amarillo, and by 11am I was ready to go. Maybe not everyone should own a gun. Since I had to wait a half-hour to let the adhesive cure, I went down the street for lunch and a look at the latest data. Colorado began to call me. I have to admit spc inspired this drive. I had looked at eastern Colorado early in the day and thought, “Brrrrr.” When I read the spc update I took a close look and saw the possibilities, it looked like an easy drive. I wanted to shoot time-lapse and lightning anyway, and I could still be set up for Friday when it was over. 

My cell coverage vanished as I crossed into Colorado. I thought of the growing number of chasers who lament having abundant data while on the road, and how they missed the old days of organic chasing. Just come to southeastern Colorado, folks. Bring some kale. The ranchers out here love kale. It got really organic in a heartbeat. I figured this would happen and was prepared to just evaluate the storms visually, without radar, as we did in olden times. It was not long before I could see the cells coming off the mountains. The number of storms, and their intensity given the lean moisture, surprised me. One cell north of I-70 was even tornado-warned. The activity in my preferred area, the southeastern part of the state, was mostly isolated cells (good) but not as intense (bad). I stayed south, because of the increasingly linear character of the storms in northern Colorado. Cell coverage had improved and I had survived this brush with organic chasing. After venturing up to Eads, I went east and then south to a lackluster storm moving south of Lamar. I confess to gunshyness after what occurred in Hereford the day before, so I stopped in Granada to shoot a double rainbow on the storm’s west side and consider blasting east into Kansas. The updraft was maturing which meant the hail would get larger with time. 

I followed the storm into Kansas as it got better because there was nothing fresh coming off the Front Range. At about this time Dodge City issued a tornado warning based on the radar. I skirted the north edge of the storm and made it to Syracuse with just some small hailstones, thus christening the new windshield. Around Syracuse’s suburbs, I observed repeated tornadogenesis failures. Not being judgmental, just saying. It was fun to watch, something weather nerds do. 

I went a mile south of Syracuse to watch another cycle of shame. A huge mass of rain-cooled air condensed and attached to the base while rotating, and yet coming to nothing but humongous outflow. There were no tornado warnings during this phase. I wanted lightning, and I wanted a decent night’s sleep, and an easy route to Dodge City for a room. None of these things did I receive. 

The storm dropped two-inch diameter hail as it rode the main road east out of Syracuse, so I dropped two dozen miles south and then headed east for Dodge. During this dash the storm developed a lovely hook and got another tor warning. I watched in the lightning as it developed a magnificent inflow tail and lowering but saw no debris. Sure looked good, though.

Amazingly, there was enough low cloud to ruin another lightning possibility. Probably just as well, given my fatigue. I’m not driving a prodigious number of miles each day, but I am playing 8-dimensional chess with the atmosphere, road network, photography, various electronics, and the clock. I also had to endure the Cubs bullpen and the Giants near-loss via siriusxm,.The human brain is an eternal miracle and I sure do want one. 

Criminy. I cannot believe that the only confirmed tornado report west of Florida was the storm in northeastern Colorado during the afternoon. Am I worshipping the wrong Gawd, or what? Vivid stars punctuated by flying electricity near Garden City entertained me enough to keep me awake until I got to Dodge, but not by much. Still, this was another decent day. My forecasts have been good. I am getting good pictures. Could be worse. And tomorrow should be the best day.

April 22nd, 2015 Texas panhandle

Wed, April 22nd

The greatest appeal of this day came from location. If baseball fans’ can become misty at the mention of Wrigley Field or Fenway, my tribe worships at the shrine of the Texas panhandle. I spent the night in Shawnee, Oklahoma, thinking I would drive to some latitude/longitude south and west of Childress that afternoon. 

The front reacted as expected to the early morning storms and oozed into northern Texas and the panhandle before midday. The hi-resolution models showed that the front would wash north toward Amarillo during the afternoon so I changed my target to Canyon, Texas. This meant I could take free I-40 rather than the high-dollar H. E. Bailey Turnpike. By the time I gassed up in Shamrock, the watch was out and storms were forming along the New Mexico border southwest of Amarillo. I made a not-so-fateful decision to drop south and avoid Amarillo in favor of Canyon. It was a hard call because of where I feared the cell would go before I could reach it, namely the Palo Duro Canyon. Turned out the storm was in no rush, and I worried about something for nothing. Business as usual. I continued west from Canyon, watching the storm via eyes and radar. The moisture was not wonderful that far west so I expected no tornadoes until it got closer to I-27. That part of my guess was correct. It was a high-based cell, but improving. The anvil got crisper and the core grew darker. I zigged and zagged south and west, watching the outflow dominate the processes. I reached US60, east of Hereford, as the rear-flank downdraft bathed the village in dirt. Then, it got weird. 

The outflow from hell seemed to stall and the torrent of dust began to rise to cloudbase, and it was rotating. It was not a transient eddy, but an actual relevant circulation. So I was hypnotized at an inopportune moment. While this was happening, a rotating wall cloud developed north of Hereford which prompted a tornado warning. As I put the pieces together, the hail and rear-flank downdraft hit me from the northwest. There was nothing else to do but flee, which I tried. I saw stones larger than golfballs, but nothing like the baseballs that occurred later on the other side of the canyon. The windshield was trashed before I even realized, because of the different forms of precipitation and panicky traffic on US60. The business end of the cell had a nasty hook south of Canyon as it crossed I-27. I was satisfied to just find a motel so I could plan repairs. I did not miss any good tornadoes, from the spc accounts, but I likely would have enjoyed the lightning.