Taking care of old business on a slow day...
Tornadoes blitzed St. Louis and various suburbs Friday evening. Lambert Field was badly damaged and closed for about 24 hours. Anyone not residing in the damage paths would enjoy the radar loop of the proceedings. There was another line of storms, hailers mostly over southeastern Missouri during most of this time.
As Monday dawned the stationary front has made it into southeastern Missouri, focusing much of Saturday and Sunday's convection away from STL. Some locations in northeastern Arkansas have received more than ten inches of rain. Wish it had landed on the high plains instead.
Severe storms are crossing Arkansas this morning; the Institute heard thunder at 3am but the storms caused no trouble. The front will be around the mid-south through Wednesday morning. The jet is going to be in the neighborhood as well, and this could be exciting regardless of the time of day or night. After dark Tuesday night looks especially stimulating. Memphis and environs will be under the right-rear and left-front quads of jet maxes. Dangerous, for those who will have survived the rains that will have fallen in the meantime.
But back to Monday. Due to circumstances beyond our control we cannot be east of the triple point in northeastern Texas this afternoon. The cape is not great but is good enough, and there will be some diffluence aloft to help ventilate the updrafts. The front will be well north of Memphis, up in Missouri, so the Institute will sit this one out.