I initially had great expectations for this one. But by the time I got a look at the morning data it looked like an after-dark setup. Too bad, since forecast storm movements were "only" 40-45 knots. It turned out to be 55 to 60 knots, but in this part of the country even a 45 knot storm will cause hardship.
At late morning the front was in southern Mississippi but headed north. Naturally all of the good thermodynamic numbers were down south. The best dynamics were out west. The mid-afternoon analyses showed helicity values up to 600 (sfc-1km!), and merely wonderful everywhere else. Central Arkansas wasunder a wedge of cold air so the best thermodynamics were along the delta. The front had reached northern Mississippi and it looked like Memphis would hit 70F if only it could clear off. The composite indices were best along an axis along the Arkansas-Louisiana border and into western Mississippi.
One cell formed around 3pm in northeastern Arkansas. It promptly sailed into southern Missouri and died. Meanwhile, behind it, lines of broken cells developed in western and central Arkansas, oriented northeast-southwest. Mode was mostly linear through the night. Tornado reports began in eastern Arkansas around 8:30pm.
It earlier appeared that a broken line of cells would precede the squall line and front, but none of the finer-mesh models were prescient.. A short line did form just west of the Mississippi after 7pm but did little. The long line had bows and lewps. The western line caught the lead line around 8pm. Some scattered cells formed ahead of the main line and moved through Shelby County but produced no severe weather. The main line reached the River at 04z, still showing embedded supercells and bows.
The tornado reports continued through 11z, with the best tornadoes digging up Alabama.
Interestingly, FOX spared the Niners game, using only crawls. Channels 5 & 3 went wall-to-wall. Our little party, having chosen to let this trough go, alternated between football in one room and ridiculing the storm coverage in the other. A few of our group might have been borderline impaired, which always makes for more fun.
At some point during the night a 110 knot jet max cruised by, but by then the line was over the horizon.