Monday morning’s hi-res models continue to hint at pre-squall line storms for eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee during the late morning and early afternoon. The main line should reach MEM around 3pm and the thunderstorms should be east of the city around 7pm, with some lingering showers into late tonight.
Thunderstorms, some with severe warnings on them, are entering western Arkansas and extend into eastern and central Texas. GR level 3 shows the line alive with meso detection and hail detection icons. SPC has a severe watch for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and tornado watches for northern and eastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas. They upgraded the convective outlook to moderate for the delta today, mainly based on straight winds, with the hint that pre-squall line cells were possible.
The surface low is in northeastern Oklahoma, and forecast into northern Missouri tonight. This does not look good for game 3 with the Orioles.
But anyway, a few echoes developed along the river southwest of MEM after 6am. The tornado watch came out shortly thereafter, valid tip 2pm. No tornadoes were reported during the night. Cell movements in western Arkansas are 50mph to the northeast. LZK is warning on storms to the northwest of Little Rock for strong winds.
At mid-morning, the hrrr is losing faith in any new development around Memphis. Northern Mississippi is getting some sunshine so I still think areas east and south of the city have a shot. When I look out the window I can see three layers of cloud moving in the same direction. Reflectivities are increasing in the southeastern corner of Arkansas. These cells would move up the river for the rest of the morning. Maybe this is what I need. Maybe not; cell speeds are up to 65mph.
Cells in southeastern Arkansas continue to strengthen and there is a for warning for one of them; all warnings have been hooks so far.
I should probably head into Arkansas after I get off work. There will be brief opportunities as the stormshoot northward. Any overpass may do.
Well, when I put the pieces together I decided to to abuse myself. The line moved through MEM with very little effect other than heavy rains. The long-awaited isolated cells formed in eastern Mississippi and moved straight north into the trees of middle Tennessee, and who needs that? Not I. There is only one confirmed tornado so far but from the radar I saw, there may be another.
