March 31
The Hudson Bay vortex has temporarily relocated to western North America. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are all viable severe days in the plains.
Tuesday afternoon shows the surface low in southeastern Colorado with a warm front through northern Oklahoma and southern Missouri. The dryline extends through the central Texas panhandle. Highest cape values are in southern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas and the best sreh numbers are north of the Red River. The jet axis is over northern Colorado, southern Nebraska, and southern Iowa. Winds are backed nicely at 850mb over northern Oklahoma. Preliminary target: CSM.
Surface features for Wednesday are mostly unchanged and likely to be affected by Tuesday night's convection. The 850 jet is veered through north central Texas to northwestern Arkansas and the deepening trough out west shifts the jet to a northern Colorado-northern Nebraska axis. Cape is up to 2500-3500j/kg over central and eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. Go to OKC and wait.
The wave comes out on Thursday. The jet is over the Texas panhandle, central Kansas. The surface low is over northern Oklahoma during the afternoon and the 850 jet is in central Arkansas. Best cape is in northeastern Texas through eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri. Northeastern Oklahoma looks best, which is not great.