Everyone is hyping this as a huge tornado outbreak, but if I hadn’t been listening for the past few days I would have pretty low expectations. The triple point in north central Kansas is enticing this afternoon, but so many parameters are weak for the area. I’m leaning toward staying south along the dry line in northwestern Oklahoma. The forecast soundings in the moist axis show a veer-back-veer wind profile, which is not good. I’m just never certain how bad it is, as in how much of that pattern does the mesocyclone feel?
One thing is certain: hail, big hail, lots of it. Well, the RAP shows development in south central Kansas at 20z and then precip down the dry line through western Oklahoma. Make it so. The NAM does the same thing, sorta. Both models show little or no srh until the low-level jet starts up this evening. Am I really going to stare at this stuff for two more hours until check-out time?
Cannot complain about the cape. The models indicate the cinh may disappear by mid-afternoon. The HRRR shows discrete cells in southern Kansas west of ICT by 20z, then develops clusters through western Oklahoma, and a bow-echo moving across MCI around 03z.
The 14z sfc map shows a surface low in west central Kansas, southeast of the main triple point. Some models maintain this into mid-afternoon but the NAM and RAP get rid of it and stamp a new low in the eastern Texas panhandle.
There is at least one model to support going anyplace today. There should be tornadoes near the warm front in northern Kansas. There should be some along the dry line. That’s climatology. The problem is figuring out where the best ones will occur.
So a storm goes up near OKC before 16z but the HRRR never saw it coming. Should be a good hailstorm.......
Dear Diary,
The tv bolted to the wall is full of scary stuff tonight, primary returns and storm coverage. After assuring me of my impending death for nearly an hour, there is finally a tornado in Oklahoma City. They had already convinced me and I’m at least seventy miles away. But even a so-so day in the plains beats Methville. And of course thanks a lot to the atmosphere for holding off until after dark. There was a tornado reported south of Wichita this afternoon. I was staring at the storm when it allegedly happened and saw nothing resembling a tornado, so I doubt it. It is possible I blinked. It is possible since I have not witnessed a tornado since last year I have forgotten what they look like. But at least there were storms, and even fire. The Arkansas City suburbs were in flames and I got caught in the firefighters’ stampede as I crested a hill. They succeeded, but hail would probably have put it out eventually. Sometimes I miss the early days, when we would hit the road with very little idea of what would happen. Today will cure anyone’s nostalgia for ignorance. I was not as optimistic as many for a big tornado day, but I assumed a couple of good areas would turn up in northern Kansas and way down south in Texas. Mostly I feared losing another windshield because it looked like a great setup for large hail. The bulk of the day’s stress came from blundering into Miles Davis on the radio. The song triggered a need for me to remember the difference between a synonym and a homonym, and I couldn’t. It disturbed me for most of the afternoon. And I could not remember the name of the woman who sang Prince’s “Nothing Compares to U.” I kept confusing Sinead with Sade. Eye no knot Y. Should probably focus more on driving. So the storms were fair but not great, visually and dynamically. But the 4 Cylinders of the Apocalypse still have a lot of life left. And I assume Oklahoma City residents will make it through the night, though a tornado in a city is nothing to snicker at unless you’re watching channel five. At least they haven’t told the populace to load the family into the wagon and take to the streets. When the storms depart the motel parking lot I will try to shoot lightning. Whether I screwed up the day or not, I can still forecast darkness.