It might be good in OK tomorrow, the 29th. But maybe not. The models provide feast and famine. The GFS forecast soundings for 00z in central and southern OK favor tornadoes and some locations have “PDS TOR” stamped on them. The NAM3k says no threat anywhere.
gfs sounding for central OK at 00z/Friday
the nam for the same time, same area
For the NAM I selected a location a little too far north but the same result came out all the way to the Red River. Little or no mlcape for the southern half of Oklahoma and plenty of cinh. The GFS had little cinh but abundant mlcape and better hodographs.
The surface forecasts were similar for both models.
The ridge in the western plains is sharper on the NAM. I have been in these cases before where I was sure of a big day and then steadily dropped south to avoid the irresistible nose of cold air. Sinking triple points are bad for drylines, and tomorrow showed it to be capped off anyway.
SPC’s slight area covers central and eastern Oklahoma. They like the lapse rates, around 8C/km, and so do I. The model discrepancy is discouraging and even the GFS does not show favorable parameters over a very large area. It is a Friday, but it is a one-day shot. Leaning against the drive at the moment…
The 12z run of the NAM3k soundings for Friday evening has “marginal TOR” profiles south of SPS for a small area. Some SVR profiles are present in eastern Oklahoma. This model maintains the imposing surface ridge all the way to I-20 west of DFW. Forecast mlcapes exceed 2000j/kg with 100j/kg of cinh. There is a pronounced inversion at 850mb. The cap lessens as you go north into northeastern Oklahoma but does not go away. The 12zGFS roads like south central Oklahoma, west of I-35 and south of I-40. The cap is much less pronounced than it is on the NAM3k. Still, the choice area is small. One of the models is way incorrect.