If memory serves, this was SPC’s first moderate risk area of the season. All the guidance showed storms all over the place in northern, central and western Texas on Saturday morning, which pretty much happened. CAPE bullseye was south of I-20 in eastern Texas and Louisiana while the SIGTOR max was stamped on northern Louisiana. Helicity values were maximum in northern and central Arkansas. The front would be located along I-30 into northeastern Texas. And the upper jet was forecast from San Antonio to southeastern Oklahoma, with a southwesterly 850 jet across this area. None of this made me want to venture into the pine trees regardless of the potential.
The morning activity in Texas made 3 inch hail stones. A linear system in the south central part dominated the radar but isolated cells had sprung up ahead of it. SPC’s outlook changed little, just a little further south with the moderate risk in Louisiana.
Texas tornadoes were busy from 16z until 1830z, then there was a nearly three-hour gap until Louisiana had any reports. Mississippi and Alabama reports were after 22z.
