Tuesday, Feb 22
The 12z and 18z models show a busy very early Thursday morning for the area with elevated hailstorms and lots and lots of rain. Then the main event, possibly tornadic, coming later in the day. The European model is faster than the gfs and takes better advantage of the diurnal instability. It looks like Arkansas has a better chance for daylight tornadoes than western Tennessee and Mississippi. By Thursday afternoon the ecmwf is a couple of hundred miles further northeast with the surface low, in northeastern Arkansas, than the gas. This could be crucial for anyone wanting to see a February tornado.
Another weather problem this week involves Chicago for Thursday through Saturday, since I'm supposed to be there for a workshop. Given the severe weather chances down south I'd rather not go, but I'm not self-employed. The European model gives Chicagoland a rough few days that I would rather miss, no matter what happens in banjo-land. Still, there is Giordano's pizza, with 55 locations in Illinois and Florida, all of them conveniently located near me. Huh?
Anyway, the nam shows heavier precip between 6z and 12z Thursday to the north of Memphis, but the gas also suggests a busy early morning. During the day the nam has the warm front along the Missouiri/Arkansas line into Kentucky. Both paint a busy picture for Memphis from 0z to 6z but the nam is pouring more rain to the north.
What is the storm chaser, who prefers his tornadoes before dark like any decent American, to do? Wait and decide Thursday morning, that's what.