So I had a brilliantly incisive post that covered all the intricacies of the day's potential, and then I didn't. I short, this morning it appeared that the cap would be broken in eastern Arkansas and there would be daylight tornadoes for the masses. The vis imagery showed a clearing trend over the southern and eastern sections of Arkansas that oozed into Mississippi. SPC graphics showed an axis of good mlcape through the delta. The best dynamics and shear extended from south of Little Rock over to northern Mississippi.
An area of storms formed nearly overhead of the Institute at midday and sped off into the sticks. Radar showed an area of echoes oriented nw/se from western Arkansas to the Arkansas-Louisiana border. I thought something fresh would develop southeast of Little Rock, ahead of this mushy area of precip, but it did not. Then I thought the mush might get better as it moved into the better environment, but it did not.
My original area looks good, but nocturnal as I expected. There is a fine cell near Coffeyville, with a tornado warning on it. The institute will get nailed after midnight. My 24-hr forecast was better than the 4-hr, at least for this area. Not unprecedented. Might be a rough night for the cat.