Friday, March 2, 2012
Our day began with a 3am hailstorm, which freaked out the cat. The storm made good time in reaching Kentucky and there are other storms leaving Missouri for Illinois. I've been keeping busy with forecast soundings from the 00z models while hungrily awaiting the morning data. Forecast cell movements are over 50mph which argues against speeding over to northeastern Mississippi or northwestern Alabama by myself. Still, it is tiresome watching these mega-days go by without trying.
As for Memphis, the good shear begins to disappear by mid-morning. Even so, the mediocre (speed) shear continues into early afternoon. Both the nam and gfs show the 850 jet lifting away from Tennessee and points south between 18z and 00z. Not a great sign for down south, but it's still a dynamic day. Winds aloft will be increasing through tonight. Last night's sref also shows weakening parameters during the afternoon, even up north in the high risk area.
SPC went high risk for the middle of Kentucky and north central Tennessee and moderate all the way down to central Alabama. The 12z soundings show reasonable cell movements, around 40kts, over my target area. The new nam will start in about a half-hour so we shall see if the above trends continue. This might not be the epic day that many have hyped but it only takes one violent storm in a populated area to justify great expectations.
The warm front extends from the Missouri low into central Tennessee. That will help the high risk zone. The dryline extends from an intersection with the cold front in eastern Oklahoma through the DFW area. Western Arkansas is veering at the surface but still has mid-60s dewpoints.
Ahhhh, the 12z nam soundings are in and it still looks less exciting after 15z for the River City. I will take the time to read the 16z SPC update to see how they feel about the south. The dynamics and the warm front should verify the area up north. Still leaning against a drive in the sticks but at least the camera batteries are charged.