It immediately looks like a good day for large hailstones from southern Kansas through western Oklahoma to northwestern Texas.
The proximity soundings up and down US 183 and US 283 show lifted indices of -8 or a little better. Lapse rates really are impressive all over the place. My problem is with the winds aloft. Everyone is south-southeasterly or southerly from the surface on up. Speed shear is not impressive, though there is some. And CAPE is abundant, especially for the first part of April.
At the surface, the low is in eastern Nebraska with models forecasting cyclogenesis in the Texas panhandle this afternoon. The triple point is forecast just south of Dodge City. If I lived near there, I would want to be along the KS/OK border, southeast of Dodge. Since I don't, the Institute for Carnivorous Storm Research will stay put and watch and learn.
00Z Tuesday'at 300mb from NAM
