April 8th in northern Kansas

The colorful maps make it look simple some days. I focused on north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas a few days earlier, not far from the stationary front. Actually that was not so different from the final outcome, but I took a roundabout path to eventual moderate success.

I left Broken Arrow and took the turnpike west to US177. The first batch of storms was increasing in strength but given the time of day I thought the cells were not surface-based. I went all the way to Arkansas City for a good look. If they were going to change character it would probably not happen until they were in the Ozarks. This turned out to be a good assessment. The HRRR was beginning to settle on new activity that would develop on the dryline out west. 

The TIV rolled by in the opposite direction as I drove west to I-35. The cirrus that dominated the area during the morning was thinning so I had one less thing to worry about. The tornado watch came out and extended all the way to the panhandle border. One cell was moving into Roger Mills County and a couple of others developed to the north, over northwestern Oklahoma. My first urge was to go to the large storm departing the panhandle, but pretty soon the closer storms looked better. Since they were closer to the boundary, but not too close, I decided to stay north. I could always drop down on the other storm if these fizzled. 

The severe warnings came out as I got closer. One of the storms showed the classic “flying eagle” signature in the reflectivity data as it crossed into Kansas. The other storm started back-building after I took a road north toward Kansas. The road situation more than anything else caused the greatest problem for the rest of the chase. There were no good options to get west to the southwest flank. 

I drove on to Halstead, Kansas and decided to go west as far as I could on the paved segment of the highway. I had no intention of pressing west any further than that. As I left the little town I could see the rain-free base to the west-southwest against a faint orange backdrop. Eventually the pavement turned to something less than ideal but I kept going, knowing I could always turn back. A couple of chasers passed me, apparently with better tires. The lowering improved with a tail cloud forming from the core to the north. Classic. I kept going. 

The lowering improved and I continued west in the mud. That is the power of magical thinking. The problem with driving on this kind of surface is that you have to pay attention. So I missed the rear-flank downdraft cut wrapping around the circulation. But I could easily see the developing funnel and then tornado to the northwest. It began as an elephant trunk, and it was hard to see if it was really on the ground,  but I finally saw dust rising from the ground. Others who were closer apparently phoned the report in to NWS. I sprinted across a pasture for a better horizon but did not carry enough lenses. Still, I felt good about the entire day. I had made enough right decisions to get a decent vantage point, even if I wasn’t the fastest driver in mud. I could see that the vortex was up and down for a grand total of eleven minutes, from 6:16 to 6:27pm. The tornado roped out and left me to deal with the consequences of my road choice. I had passed the road to Aetna on my way west. It was an option to the north that might have given me a view of the large cone tornado that developed at 6:55. It lasted (visually) for five minutes before the precipitation obscured it. That road would have been even worse than the one I was on, so who knows what the right answer was. As it turned out, I missed the rest of the tornadoes while skating on margarine for over an hour.

By the time I recovered the circulation was bearing down on Medicine Lodge. I had a great view of the updraft looking down rt166. I took a few pictures with the road in the foreground; some of my best shots of the day. I enjoyed my approach to the storm despite being too late. I took pictures on the way to Medicine Lodge, and then shot some lightning after sunset, a short time later. 

The odd sighting of the day occurred in Attica, where I ran into former employer and Accu-Weather vice president of something or other, Mike Smith. I wish we had more time to chat but he and his entourage of attractive young women were in a rush. We did pictures and then separated. I found the Braum’s in Wellington for a salad. Then spent the night at the Oak Tree Inn.

Finally.

Last week was better for a couple of days. Damaging hail and high winds hit Missouri and Arkansas on Tuesday the 24th. Gulf moisture was lacking, probably from the onslaught of this year’s arctic fronts. I thought enough moisture would pile up along the front in southwestern Missouri and a tornado or two would be possible, but apparently not. Prospects for a chase through the Ozarks convinced me to stay away.

The setup for day two was better, with another day to advect reluctant moisture northward and the presence of a stationary front plus an outflow boundary from day one’s activity. The two most significant tornadoes occurred in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa suburbs.

The vortices in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas formed from the outflow boundary while it appears the tornado in Oklahoma County developed near the stationary front. This was a vanishingly rare miss for NWS, which did not warn until after the tornado hit the ground. More entertainment followed with Accu-Weather’s public and explicit jab at the local office. Anyway, the rawinsonde data showed more manly lapse rates and low-level moisture plus shear.

An active day, with relatively slow-moving storms (for March). I don’t regret passing on this one as I have had my one near-death fiasco in the ‘burbs at rush hour. And the four- inch diameter hail. Ick. The Four Cylinders of the Apocalypse are on their final turn already. Plus the car needs a new windshield. Here’s hoping NWS and Accu-Wx kiss and make up. 

March 24th, 2015 - Finally a tornado?

We have seen a parade of arctic front reach the Gulf of Mexico this year, and I have been wondering about the quality of moisture return for severe storm days. Water temperatures in the northern Gulf are only in the upper 60s and lower 70s, which is not great. 

I have been watching surface dew point forecasts for the past couple of days to see how the models handle the moisture return as the day approaches. 

More Mid-south woe

The low moved across the Gulf states and produced several inches of snow from southern Arkansas through northern Mississippi. Memphis dodged this one by a couple of dozen miles. The airport got less than an inch and for once Tipton County did not even get a flurry. From here the precipitation hit the Carolinas and southern Virginia hard, but this will be gone Thursday afternoon. 

The graphic, stolen from the Memphis NWS site, shows the futility of forecasting snowfall amounts. A dusting landed on the patio grill cover, the airport got about an inch or so, and then half a foot fell two counties deep into Mississippi. 

Many forecasters inserted flurries into the forecast for Thursday afternoon, based largely on the high-res models. I never bought it because of what was actually going on upstream in Missouri and Illinois. The echoes the models advected across hillbilly heaven from southern Illinois did not exist in reality at mid-morning, and there was time for the equations to spin something up. So far, meteorology 1, modelology 0.

Mid-south woe - late February

The latest trough is approaching, nothing remarkable, except this is our third shot at snow and/or ice in the last eight days. The atmosphere spits in our general direction but does little harm. Last Monday we got a light dose of ice that closed schools for most of the week. We have been mostly soaking in the arctic air with the eastern US for a couple of weeks, eliminating the suspense on whether the precipitation type will be solid or liquid. Now it’s a matter of freezing or frozen. It’s easier, until you want to go some place.

The second shot came Friday morning, more ice and sleet, followed by warm air’s arrival and a return to spring. We even heard thunder Friday night, no doubt adding to the fun for the inbound. Compression winds were bad enough. 

Today looks innocuous for the metro area. Northern Mississippi has a better chance for freezing junk; Memphis may get flurries and some sleet. The cold continues and we will go through this again this week, maybe twice. Probably shouldn’t complain much since the northeastern US has gotten the brunt of this winter, as opposed to the ’13-’14 onslaught.

California has record dryness. Florida is cold. No one is happy. The atmosphere hates us.

Mississippi Delta-October 13th, 2014

Monday morning’s hi-res models continue to hint at pre-squall line storms for eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee during the late morning and early afternoon. The main line should reach MEM around 3pm and the thunderstorms should be east of the city around 7pm, with some lingering showers into late tonight. 

Thunderstorms, some with severe warnings on them, are entering western Arkansas and extend into eastern and central Texas. GR level 3 shows the line alive with meso detection and hail detection icons. SPC has a severe watch for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and tornado watches for northern and eastern Texas and southwestern Arkansas. They upgraded the convective outlook to moderate for the delta today, mainly based on straight winds, with the hint that pre-squall line cells were possible.

The surface low is in northeastern Oklahoma, and forecast into northern Missouri tonight. This does not look good for game 3 with the Orioles.

But anyway, a few echoes developed along the river southwest of MEM after 6am. The tornado watch came out shortly thereafter, valid tip 2pm. No tornadoes were reported during the night. Cell movements in western Arkansas are 50mph to the northeast. LZK is warning on storms to the northwest of Little Rock for strong winds. 

At mid-morning, the hrrr is losing faith in any new development around Memphis. Northern Mississippi is getting some sunshine so I still think areas east and south of the city have a shot. When I look out the window I can see three layers of cloud moving in the same direction. Reflectivities are increasing in the southeastern corner of Arkansas. These cells would move up the river for the rest of the morning. Maybe this is what I need. Maybe not; cell speeds are up to 65mph. 

Cells in southeastern Arkansas continue to strengthen and there is a for warning for one of them; all warnings have been hooks so far.

I should probably head into Arkansas after I get off work. There will be brief opportunities as the stormshoot northward. Any overpass may do.

Well, when I put the pieces together I decided to to abuse myself. The line moved through MEM with very little effect other than heavy rains. The long-awaited isolated cells formed in eastern Mississippi and moved straight north into the trees of middle Tennessee, and who needs that? Not I. There is only one confirmed tornado so far but from the radar I saw, there may be another. 

April 13, 2014 in OK/TX

I had decided not to go and then to go and then not to go and then finally I decided to go. I do not have trouble making decisions. I make lots of them. 

The models showed that the greatest angle between the dry line and the upper jet was going to be over northern Texas but I thought southern Oklahoma would be good enough. I took I-40 to eastern OK and then went south on 377. The cold front went first in KS and northern OK. Norman’s 88d could detect the front and dry line and it was interesting to see the trends of both boundaries. I had decent data 90% of the time through the entire chase. The OKC area tempted me with isolated cells during the early afternoon but I thought the front would ruin the setup that far north. I was pretty sure SPC would put a tornado watch out from the KS border to the Red River and that eventually happened. 

All through the afternoon I could see the junk  to the southeast that had been precipitating since I reached the state. Temperatures in southeastern OK to the northeast under the cloud shield were in the 70s. Meanwhile, 90s were pushing into southwestern OK and I though the south central part of the state was the best spot. 

I watched the dry line sputter for a few hours. Storms were more successful in northern Texas, to the west of DFW and vicinity, which disappointed but did not surprise me. Through all of this, I knew the biggest negative of the day was the timing of shortwave #1. The sky overhead my location east of the dry line, looked like a well-capped airmass. I counted on the air behind the dry line to start things off, so I did not head south. 

Anyway, there were two isolated cells in Texas that did not look especially impressive on radar but had plenty of daylight. The front in OK was overtaking the dry line and convection was building southward linearly. At or near 6pm, a “very brief touchdown” occurred from a cell with a good notch in southern OK, but I was in no position to see that. 

I continued to hedge southward for the south end of the line, just in case, but this was looked more and more like a lightning chase. There were cells in the line, but nothing had the character of the storms in northern Texas. Mercifully, darkness fell on schedule and I decided to let the line roll over me in Sherman while I had a salad in the car. Rain, no hail, no damaging straight line winds, no tornadoes. And when it moved on, no good lightning either. I recovered to Durant and spent the night at the Comfort Inn with no tv and no internet.

First week of April

March 31

The Hudson Bay vortex has temporarily relocated to western North America. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are all viable severe days in the plains.

Tuesday afternoon shows the surface low in southeastern Colorado with a warm front through northern Oklahoma and southern Missouri. The dryline extends through the central Texas panhandle. Highest cape values are in southern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas and the best sreh numbers are north of the Red River. The jet axis is over northern Colorado, southern Nebraska, and southern Iowa. Winds are backed nicely at 850mb over northern Oklahoma. Preliminary target: CSM.

Surface features for Wednesday are mostly unchanged and likely to be affected by Tuesday night's convection. The 850 jet is veered through north central Texas to northwestern Arkansas and the deepening trough out west shifts the jet to a northern Colorado-northern Nebraska axis. Cape is up to 2500-3500j/kg over central and eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. Go to OKC and wait.

The wave comes out on Thursday. The jet is over the Texas panhandle, central Kansas. The surface low is over northern Oklahoma during the afternoon and the 850 jet is in central Arkansas. Best cape is in northeastern Texas through eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri. Northeastern Oklahoma looks best, which is not great.

1st Storm of Spring

It is still winter, though. I made what I thought was a good forecast the preceding Friday morning. It looked like less than a tenth of an inch of ice on Monday morning, at a quiet time for the airport. But as the weekend went on, things looked worse. The airport and southern part of Shelby County escaped with a touch of freezing rain and sleet on Sunday night and Monday morning, but points north and west got bombed. Schools north of Shelby were still closed on Thursday, awaiting electricity. I-40&55 were backed up for dozens of miles in eastern Arkansas Monday and Tuesday. 

Cordova had occasional thunderstorms for a few hours Sunday night and the rain was moderate part of the time. The ag-center received almost three inches of rain, while the temperature hovered in the lower 30s.

April 17, 2013--southwestern Oklahoma

Apr 17, 2013

Initially, this seemed like a great idea. The only question was whether the eerily consistent-with-itself gas with the boundary in southern Kansas was correct, or if the eerily consistent-with-itself nam with the warm front in southern Oklahoma was right. It was going to be a good setup. 

My first impression was that we would go to southwestern Oklahoma on the dry line. 

Al and I left Memphis at 5am with the general notion of going to western Oklahoma and fine-tuning from there. We were happy to see no nocturnal convection anywhere in the southern plains. The front was around the Red River in the early morning. 

A few storms popped up along and behind the front, a couple of counties west of Oklahoma City. We could see they were elevated by their swift drift to the north-northeast. So we had a leisurely lunch at the Flying J on the west side of the city. We decided on southwestern Oklahoma, a decision forced by the front being south of the Kansas border by a very long shot. 

What would become a highlight of the day was our trip south on US81. We had crossed the front on I-40W, going from the mid-70s to the upper 40s. When we reached the warm air again on 81, all of the windows fogged over, and stayed that way. We were wowed by the science of it all, and then realized we were hurtling down the highway with no visibility. 

We survived to reach the turnpike at Chickasha and continued southwestward to Lawton. We should have stayed there, but did not. Storms were developing across the Red River and in the panhandle. We waited for them north of the river, around Frederick. We saw a classic rfd cut but no apparent rotation. There were svr warnings for the storms as they approached Lawton but we were concerned that the rain-cooled air to the north would kill them. So a tornado hit the Goodyear plant near Lawton. 

I'm not heart-broken over this. To this point I have not seen one photograph of a tornado from this day. What did bug me was that I gave up on the storm coming up from northwestern Texas about a half-hour before sunset. After an afternoon of grayness and fog I was done. So this storm probably produced tornadoes north of the river east of Frederick. No pictures from this one either, but still, you want to see this stuff after a drive from hell. A couple of tornadoes near Harrold, TX were also confirmed by Marty Lisius. During the (daylight) hours that the storms were busiest, they never really looked good on radar. The reflectivity's were elongated east-west. Visually, the folks up north near Lawton reported that the storms looked mushy. We had seen plenty of dust and a few storm bases, but only one cell from the mid-levels upward. 

I thought we would spend the night in Oklahoma but Al had other ideas. It was his turn to drive so I rested my eyes for awhile. We kept blowing by exits with lots of motels, through the hard rainfall. Finally by eastern Oklahoma I had figured out that Al intended to head back to Tennessee. I did not care either way, overwhelmed by fresh disgust and disappointment of having been burned by my laziness. 

I awoke to strobing blue lights near Fort Smith. We think since the bars in Arkansas close at 2am, it was a dui stop. Al got a warning for 74 in a 70. Petty stuff. We hit Memphis around 7am; a 26-hour drive for not one picture.

Brinkley in autumn

When I hit the road, I expected a less linear mode to dominate in Arkansas. Sure, northern Arkansas could do anything, but the rest should be fine because the deep-layer flow was hitting the boundary at this huge angle. So through the bulk of the afternoon it was nothing but northeast-southwest lines of convection with embedded cells. The most impressive thing was that despite high reflectivities, there were no warnings before 6pm.

I drove to Brinkley as planned and stopped for data. There was no reason to continue westward based on the radar. Everything was coming to me. The tornado watch finally came out at 5:30. At that point there were two lines of storms, another developing, and new discrete cells in southwestern Arkansas. That's when I became convinced I would run out of daylight. The individual cells maintained their non-linear mode all the way to Mississippi and were responsible for many of the day's reports. 

I backed off on rt70 to avoid the diesels and all of that drama. The low clouds obscured most of the structure but what I could see was pretty soft. The anvils looked alright in the orange sunset, so I took some pictures with a field of mature cotton in the foreground. At least I got something. I eventually got back on I-40 to make time after dark. I avoided the worst of it, but a little before 7pm, the tor warnings began. One was almost where I had been parked two hours earlier. Naturally Shelby County was well-warned as the line approached. One tornado was "confirmed" near Clarendon and another near Jericho; the others were in Mississippi. All were after dusk.

I'm glad I went, but was disappointed in the storm's appearance. The 00z LZK raob showed skinny cape at 1000j/kg, BRN of 59, mlcape at 1020, srh of 235, and sfc-6km shear at 64kts. Flow was unidirectional above 1km. All in all, there were more good things than bad. I'm not clear on why only southern Arkansas had isolated cells. 

Severe storms - Oct 13, '12

The best thing this day had going for it was that it would not force me to burn any vacation days. And for a couple of days it actually looked like a good setup for Kansas and Oklahoma. Models regularly showed the trough becoming more negatively-tilted during the day on Saturday. The moisture was there. Lots of wind, though not at a great angle across the surface boundary. So, I thought there would be a small number of early tornadoes in east-central Kansas down through northern Oklahoma, and then the thing would line out. And then I would shoot lightning. Well, the suspense must be killing you.

So it was mostly near or after dark, two were rain-wrapped, and none were in Oklahoma or Kansas. I got the total number of reports about right. 

From afar, it looked like a frustrating day to be on the road. Storms began early, many of them became linear but a few were isolated supercells. But there were a lot of thunderstorms out there, especially in Oklahoma.

There were a few tornado warnings in northern Texas, and way south in southern Texas. The stuff near the Red River (above) had a warning for awhile. 

Let's look at what I thought was the main drawback.

That's what I'm talking about. The upper flow has a large component along the boundary axis. I have learned the hard way that this is not good for tornadoes. It isn't fatal, but the good days with good tornadoes are unusual. This is one time that I'm happy with my decision. 

Isaac

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

This has gone on long enough. The underachieving Isaac finally found Louisiana last night, after what seems like weeks of wobbles and multiple centers. A lack of focus kept it at TS strength as it sailed up the eastern Gulf on Monday. Poor Haiti got the worst of it. Again. 

The press focused on New Orleans and the coincidence of Isaac's arrival on the eve of Katrina's seventh anniversary. I suspect a few people in the Army Corps of Engineers office down there were a little nervous, despite the $ poured into the pumps and levees. 

There were no confirmed tornadoes on Tuesday. A few warnings have been issued today and there is a watch out, but nothing yet today either.

Hurricane Isaac is gradually wasting away in southern Louisiana. If the westerlies were not stuck up in Canada this thing would get spat out into the Atlantic in short order.  As it is, we are stuck with ongoing conference calls this week as the company ruminates over how it can deliver iPhones to people who will have to swim to their cars.

There is a drought going on and on, though. So it would be nice if the winds would just drop off and the leftovers could just roam the plains and corn belt for two or three days. As it is, the Mississippi will rise a bit this week, and then fall rapidly back to near-record low stages.

It was a nice touch for the NHC to thank the recon pilots in the discussion Wednesday morning. 

April 3, 2012--north central Texas

The previous day went pretty much as expected. No remorse for staying in the mid-south, this time. The upper flow paralleled the low level boundary and there were not sub-synoptic accidents to generate even one tornodo report along the dryline.

The next day turned out much better, with a boundary more or less normal to the upper air flow. What a difference. SPC had a severe box out early and saw what was coming with the boundary near Dallas. By late morning they had upgraded to a tornado watch and things went crazy for a few hours. Not much remorse here either, since metro areas are no fun for solo chasing and photography. A traffic copter got the shot of the day: semis getting lofted on the south side of Dallas.

April 2, 2012

It immediately looks like a good day for large hailstones from southern Kansas through western Oklahoma to northwestern Texas.

The proximity soundings up and down US 183 and US 283 show lifted indices of -8 or a little better. Lapse rates really are impressive all over the place. My problem is with the winds aloft. Everyone is south-southeasterly or southerly from the surface on up. Speed shear is not impressive, though there is some. And CAPE is abundant, especially for the first part of April. 

At the surface, the low is in eastern Nebraska with models forecasting cyclogenesis in the Texas panhandle this afternoon. The triple point is forecast just south of Dodge City. If I lived near there, I would want to be along the KS/OK border, southeast of Dodge. Since I don't, the Institute for Carnivorous Storm Research will stay put and watch and learn.

00Z Tuesday'at 300mb from NAM

Picking up where the atmosphere left off last year

Friday, March 2, 2012

Our day began with a 3am hailstorm, which freaked out the cat. The storm made good time in reaching Kentucky and there are other storms leaving Missouri for Illinois. I've been keeping busy with forecast soundings from the 00z models while hungrily awaiting the morning data. Forecast cell movements are over 50mph which argues against speeding over to northeastern Mississippi or northwestern Alabama by myself. Still, it is tiresome watching these mega-days go by without trying.

As for Memphis, the good shear begins to disappear by mid-morning. Even so, the mediocre (speed) shear continues into early afternoon. Both the nam and gfs show the 850 jet lifting away from Tennessee and points south between 18z and 00z. Not a great sign for down south, but it's still a dynamic day. Winds aloft will be increasing through tonight. Last night's sref also shows weakening parameters during the afternoon, even up north in the high risk area.

SPC went high risk for the middle of Kentucky and north central Tennessee and moderate all the way down to central Alabama. The 12z soundings show reasonable cell movements, around 40kts, over my target area. The new nam will start in about a half-hour so we shall see if the above trends continue. This might not be the epic day that many have hyped but it only takes one violent storm in a populated area to justify great expectations.

The warm front extends from the Missouri low into central Tennessee. That will help the high risk zone. The dryline extends from an intersection with the cold front in eastern Oklahoma through the DFW area. Western Arkansas is veering at the surface but still has mid-60s dewpoints. 

Ahhhh, the 12z nam soundings are in and it still looks less exciting after 15z for the River City. I will take the time to read the 16z SPC update to see how they feel about the south. The dynamics and the warm front should verify the area up north. Still leaning against a drive in the sticks but at least the camera batteries are charged. 

Oh yeah, it's still winter

Thursday, February 2, 2012

We're not looking forward to the annual groundhog glut on the news tonight. Hope the remote is handy for muting since it is more or less a rerun. 

In the atmosphere, though, stuff's coming. The mid-level trough is drifting toward the central high plains and the blizzard and winter storm watches and warnings are out from Colorado into the central plains. The upper system closes off over Colorado and makes poor progress eastward until late in the weekend. A couple of hundred miles of I-70 are going to be closed. Fortunately there will be plenty of time to clear them before we need them again.

More interesting, at least for today, is SPC's slight risk for northwestern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. The wind profiles for western Texas look fine but the moisture is a mess. The good surface dew points are loitering around I-10 this morning, and the return is less than impressive. Makes it a no-go for us, with the best hope for severe after dark.

The moisture will be better tomorrow, but the hodographs will not be as pretty. And what does this mean for the mid-south? Not much beyond mediocre storms Friday and Saturday. 

AFC-NFC Championship Night Tornado Festival

I initially had great expectations for this one. But by the time I got a look at the morning data it looked like an after-dark setup. Too bad, since forecast storm movements were "only" 40-45 knots. It turned out to be 55 to 60 knots, but in this part of the country even a 45 knot storm will cause hardship.

At late morning the front was in southern Mississippi but headed north. Naturally all of the good thermodynamic numbers were down south. The best dynamics were out west. The mid-afternoon analyses showed helicity values up to 600 (sfc-1km!), and merely wonderful everywhere else.  Central Arkansas wasunder a wedge of cold air so the best thermodynamics were along the delta. The front had reached northern Mississippi and it looked like Memphis would hit 70F if only it could clear off. The composite indices were best along an axis along the Arkansas-Louisiana border and into western Mississippi.

One cell formed around 3pm in northeastern Arkansas. It promptly sailed into southern Missouri and died. Meanwhile, behind it, lines of broken cells developed in western and central Arkansas, oriented northeast-southwest. Mode was mostly linear through the night. Tornado reports began in eastern Arkansas around 8:30pm.

It earlier appeared that a broken line of cells would precede the squall line and front, but none of the finer-mesh models were prescient.. A short line did form just west of the Mississippi after 7pm but did little. The long line had bows and lewps. The western line caught the lead line around 8pm. Some scattered cells formed ahead of the main line and moved through Shelby County but produced no severe weather. The main line reached the River at 04z, still showing embedded supercells and bows. 

The tornado reports continued through 11z, with the best tornadoes digging up Alabama.

Interestingly, FOX spared the Niners game, using only crawls. Channels 5 & 3 went wall-to-wall. Our little party, having chosen to let this trough go, alternated between football in one room and ridiculing the storm coverage in the other. A few of our group might have been borderline impaired, which always makes for more fun. 

At some point during the night a 110 knot jet max cruised by, but by then the line was over the horizon.

Severe storms in OK/TX

Officially, one tornado occurred near Tipton in Tillman County, OK yesterday; a bit before 3pm. Radar showed two storms in southwestern Oklahoma with vulgar hooks; the official tor producer and another to the north. The storms fired south of the Red River, south of Childress and moved northeastward. 

It looks like the surface low was north of Childress at 21z. More numerous storms occurred in northwestern Oklahoma but apparently did little. 

Tornado watches continued through early morning. Storms weakened as they crossed central and eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Some reintensification should occur this afternoon but with the best energy of the upper system pulling off to the northeast, today looks less interesting then yesterday. Storms will reach Memphis after dark, but heavy rains are the likely product.

November in the southern plains

After an extended period of peace and quiet, a few features are coming together that make this afternoon and evening look interesting for western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas. 

A surface front extends from southeastern Kansas through central Oklahoma to a low that has not really consolidated near Childress. The OUN and FWD soundings look good as far as moisture is concerned and this has been a problem over the past couple of storm systems. Thunderstorms are racing into southern Kansas, well north of the front, and there is a steady clearing trend over far western Texas at mid-morning. 

The HRRR shows new development in western Oklahoma extending southwestward into northwestern Texas after 21z. The RUC doesn't look so great; precipitation is widespread over southern Oklahoma from 14z onward. The NAM is likewise wet over the entire state from spin-up, with increasing 3-hourly totals beginning after 21z for Oklahoma just east of the panhandle border, extending southwestward in to west Texas after 03z. Finally, the GFS has rain all over the state, too, especially in the north and west. Why do I look at this stuff?

Dynamically, everything is fine to very fine. No real bulls-eyes, I would focus on the west end of the deep moisture east of the surface low, wherever that ends up at mid-afternoon. Most of the models stamp the surface low in either eastern New Mexico to the southern plains of west Texas. It is kind of a baggy isobar pattern. I think the low will be around Childress or extreme southwestern Oklahoma today.

Lowest lcls are begin in western Oklahoma during the mid-afternoon. My area straddles the Red River, as I expect everyone else's does. 0-1km helicities are better up north, the HRRR storm motion vectors are out of the southwest, at around 240. I don't really know how that model computes storm motion so a right-mover birthed south of the river could stay south of the river. 

The vortmax appears to be in eastern Arizona, which looks a bit west to really have an effect during daylight. The models show the vorticity to be channeled. It might not matter with all the moisture that's waiting. It might really be good shortly after sunset. Too far for the Carnivorous Storm Team to go for night time tornadoes. Good luck to the more ambitious and geographically-favored.